751
FXUS65 KTFX 192014
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
214 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Breezy to windy conditions are expected through Sunday while
temperatures climb well above average. A cold front will then
bring light precipitation chances and a brief cool down Monday and
Tuesday before drier and milder conditions return for the second
half of the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Mild, but strong, westerly flow will persist over the Northern
Rockies through the weekend, although the strongest surface winds
are expected this afternoon and early evening. Diurnal mixing has
really kicked in over the last couple of hours with a number of
stations now observing winds meeting or exceeding warning criteria
(40 mph sustained/58 mph gusts). The latest hires guidance does
show some indication of the winds persisting a little beyond the 6
pm MDT warning expiration time, but confidence was not high
enough for an extension with this forecast package. Winds slowly
diminish overnight tonight, but like mentioned earlier there`s an
expectation for breezy to windy conditions to continue into
Sunday, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front.

Sunday`s temperatures warm a couple degrees over today before a
Pacific trough passes through the Northern Rockies on Monday and
brings an opportunity for lower elevation rain showers/light
mountain snow. Similar to previous systems this month, rainfall
amounts for lower elevations look to be on the lighter side with
probabilities for a tenth of an inch or more ranging from less
then 20% in the southwest to around 20 to 40% over the plains.
Snowfall impacts should mostly be confined to the higher terrain
of Glacier Park where a 1 to 2 inches of snowfall is expected.
General troughing remains in place on Tuesday for near normal
temperatures and variable cloudiness.

Ridging aloft becomes more dominant and warms temperatures back
to around 10 degrees above average during the second half of the
workweek; however, a fast moving westerly flow will maintain
breezy to windy conditions for this timeframe. Additionally, a
passing shortwave may bring lower end precipitation chances late
Wednesday into Thursday. Most ensembles then highlight unsettled
conditions next weekend into early next week, but there are still
sizable disagreements to work out in order to solidify confidence
with more specific details. - RCG

&&

.AVIATION...
19/12Z TAF Period

There will be some mid to high level clouds this morning, except for
KWYS where clear skies as allowed fog to develop. Fog will be dense
at times, dropping down to 1/4SM periodically throughout the
morning. Across North-Central MT, strong winds aloft will continue
to produce gusty winds at the surface and some low level wind shear
today. The strongest winds will be through the morning hours, with
gusts of 40-45kts at times at KCTB and KGTF. Winds weaken during the
afternoon and evening, but will remain breezy through Sunday
morning. Mountain wave turbulence will also be a concern today.
-Wilson

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  75  50  68 /   0   0   0  30
CTB  49  71  49  60 /   0   0   0  60
HLN  42  73  43  69 /   0   0   0  40
BZN  34  69  35  68 /   0   0   0  10
WYS  21  61  24  55 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  32  66  35  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  48  77  49  67 /  10  10   0  30
LWT  46  73  47  70 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for East Glacier
Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-
Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls