077
FXUS65 KTFX 252115
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
215 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Next round of light snow affects mainly central and southwest
   Montana tonight through Wednesday morning.

 - A larger winter weather system moves in late on Thanksgiving
   and affects the region through Friday with impactful snowfall
   and gusty north winds affecting some areas.

 - Coldest air of the season so far will arrive this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:

A northwest flow aloft is in place across the Northern Rockies and
MT between a broad upper trough across Canada and flat ridging to
the southwest. An active north Pacific upper level jet is driving
an embedded shortwave into the Pacific NW today with another
currently upstream near 150W. The wave moving onshore this
afternoon moves quickly east across western and southwest MT
tonight through Wednesday morning, spreading light snow into areas
near the continental divide late this evening and across central
and southwest MT during the overnight through Wednesday morning
period.

Another mainly dry period under northwest flow aloft is expected
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday before the next wave moves into
the region late Thursday and phases with additional energy dropping
south from Canada while tracking across the area Thursday night and
Friday. Snow looks to develop across primarily north-central MT
ahead of the initial wave by Thursday afternoon and increases
Thursday night as the additional energy arrives with snow
spreading across most of area late Thursday night through Friday
morning. A colder airmass and strong surface high pressure surges
southward from AB Thursday night through Friday morning bringing
gusty north winds and falling temperatures with the northerly flow
supporting snow through Friday afternoon in upslope favored
locations near the central and southwest MT mountain rages.

Cold high pressure settles over the region this weekend for mainly
dry conditions with afternoon temperatures in the teens and
twenties and overnight lows in the single digits above/below zero.
Looking ahead to next week, the area remains under cold cyclonic
NW flow between deep/large scale troughing in central Canada and
ridging in the Eastern Pacific. There is still some significant
differences among the various model ensembles in the exact
position of these features and smaller scale disturbances moving
through the NW flow. Overall cool to below average temperatures
are likely to persist, though some moderation in temperatures is
possible with additional chances for snow associated with
disturbances moving through. Hoenisch

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Snow tonight through Wed morning is mainly driven by warm advection,
which keeps intensity fairly light for most areas. NW flow and
the embedded upper level jet does favor some potential for
enhanced snowfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Big/Little Belt and
Bridger ranges while the rest of central and southwest MT is
likely to see an inch or less of snow accumulation.

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for western portions of north-
central MT for the late Thursday through Friday period where there
is a 40-60% probability for at least 4-6" snowfall amounts and
models have trended upward with an embedded area of 6" or higher
snowfall amounts possible (20-40%). In addition, areas along and
west of I-15 in north-central MT have a 40-60% probability of
northerly wind gusts exceeding 30 mph as the cold air surges south
early Friday morning adding potential blowing/drifting snow hazards.

At least minor winter weather impacts are likely across much of the
area Thursday night through Friday and additional winter weather
highlights may be needed as snowfall amount forecasts evolve. in
addition, gusty north winds Friday morning could create hazardous
conditions even in areas with lower snowfall amounts. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
25/18Z TAF Period

VFR conditions prevail through this evening under a NW flow aloft
with increasing high level clouds through this afternoon and mid
level clouds this evening. Light snow spreads over the
continental divide this evening and across central and southwest
MT overnight for a period of lower VFR cloud bases and mountain
obscuration. A period of MVFR conditions in light snow is likely
at KBZN Wednesday morning with clouds and precipitation clearing
from west to east by late Wednesday morning. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  26  42  24  36 /  30  50   0  50
CTB  17  38  17  32 /  10  10   0  50
HLN  25  42  27  41 /  40  50  10  40
BZN  22  42  24  45 /  30  60  10  20
WYS  14  33  18  38 /  40  70  20  30
DLN  23  44  28  47 /  20  20   0  10
HVR  12  33  10  32 /   0  10   0  20
LWT  19  38  22  39 /  10  50  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
afternoon for Cascade County below 5000ft-East Glacier Park
Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-
Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and Liberty-
Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky
Mountain Front-Western and Central Chouteau County.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls