394
FXUS65 KTFX 111730
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1030 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Breezy today across most areas, with temperatures remaining
   above average.

 - Mild temperatures continue through Thursday, which looks to be another
   breezy day.

 - Next opportunity for precipitation comes Thursday night into
   Friday behind a cold front, with areas most favored for
   precipitation being across Southwest Montana.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 448 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Northwesterly flow aloft is beginning to build in across the region
as broad upper level ridging begins redevelop across the west.
Lingering stronger westerly flow closer to the surface will maintain
isolated pockets of gusty winds the remainder of the overnight, but
that threat is quickly diminishing. While winds aloft will be
trending weaker through the day today, they will be sufficient to
result in a breezy day, mainly over the plains. A benign day is
forecast otherwise, with dry and mild conditions persisting.

Another benign day is forecast for most areas Wednesday as the ridge
slowly amplifies and begins to drift eastward. There does appear to
be a small pocket of moisture that works through the northern
portion of the ridge - along the Rocky Mountain Front - that will
result in some light precipitation. Otherwise the day looks mild and
dry, with little in way of wind.

The ridge axis shifts further eastward Thursday, shifting east of
the region toward the end of the day ahead of an approaching Pacific
trough. As the ridge is broken down, breezy winds are forecast to
develop across the region. The initial concern will be for gusty
southwesterly winds across Southwest Montana Thursday. Gusty winds
develop on the plains in the afternoon into the evening Thursday,
ahead of a cold front that moves across the region Thursday night
into early Friday. At least breezy winds look to persist into the
day Friday over the plains, gustiest west of I-15.

In addition to periods of gusty winds, the cold front will also
reintroduce precipitation to the region, mainly across Southwest
Montana and portions of Central Montana. Given the downslope nature
of the forecast winds Thursday night into the weekend, the
probability for precipitation is low over the plains. Although areas
across Southwest and portions of Central Montana will see a return
of precipitation, the overall amounts appear to be on the light side
given the splitting nature of the troughing that moves across the
western US.

While a progressive pattern appears to be favored late weekend into
early next week, specifics remain murky associated with uncertainty
in the timing of any ridge or trough that develops and quickly moves
over the Northern Rockies. -AM

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Rocky Mountain Front Winds Thursday night into Friday:

Although there is an increasing share of guidance members that
result in breezy conditions late Thursday afternoon, probabilistic
guidance still favors late Thursday night and Friday for the most
favorable timeframe for the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain
Front and adjacent plains. The probability for a 55 mph gust
Thursday night and Friday between Browning and Cut Bank is roughly
60%.

Mountain snow Thursday night into Friday:

Given the splitting nature of the trough, precipitation amounts
aren`t particularly impressive. The southern end of the Madison
range is most favored for the greatest amounts, though the
probability for 6 inches of snow over 48 hours ending Saturday
morning is roughly 50%. -AM

&&

.AVIATION...
11/18Z TAF Period

A moderate westerly flow across the Northern Rockies will
continue to produce some mountain wave turbulence across the area
along with gusty surface winds at KCTB and KGTF through this
afternoon before flow aloft and surface winds decrease more
noticeably by this evening. Scattered to broken mid-level clouds
across southwest MT this morning will continue to decrease this
afternoon with VFR conditions prevailing at all terminals.
Hoenisch/Ludwig

The KWYS TAF will not be issued until airport operations resume
next spring.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  34  59  41 /   0   0  10   0
CTB  53  28  53  34 /   0   0  10   0
HLN  58  37  59  37 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  58  33  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  47  25  50  25 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  56  35  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  57  27  51  31 /   0   0  10   0
LWT  57  33  59  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
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