158
FXUS65 KTFX 022122
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
322 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Some
  storms could produce strong wind gusts.

- One more warm day on Thursday before temperatures turn cooler
  for July 4th and Saturday.

- Potential for a good rainfall July 4th into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move from southwest to
northeast through the CWA this evening. The main impact from the
storms will be the potential for strong wind gusts and lightning.
On Thursday, conditions will be similar to today, with another
round of showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening
hours. Again there is the potential that a few storms could
produce a few strong wind gusts. It will continue to be warm on
Thursday afternoon before it starts to cool down on Friday.

For Friday into Saturday, a slow moving upper level trof will move
into Western MT. This will allow for a more widespread rainfall to
develop on July 4th afternoon and evening along the divide and
across Southwest MT, this area of precipitation moving northward
into Central MT by Friday evening. The GFS forecast models
continue to show the potential for a widespread reasonable
rainfall with this system. The timing of the rainfall could impact
outdoor firework displays on Friday over a good portion of the
CWA.

For Saturday expect the rainfall to generally continue to push
northward and end from south to north. Areas along the Hi-Line
will be last to diminish with most of the rainfall ending by
Saturday evening.

Sunday will be a nice day across the CWA, with drier/warmer
conditions.

A warming trend then continues from Monday through Wednesday of
next week, with afternoon highs climbing through the 80s. The
chance for storms later next week will become quite low by the
middle of next week.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
The big concerns is the potential for severe storms this evening.
With dry air in place at lower elevations, strong wind gusts will
be possible from any TS.

Secondly, the potential for a widespread rainfall Friday
afternoon into Saturday. The GFS has over 1 inch of precipitation
falling along the divide and about 0.50 to 1 inch falling along
the I-15 corridor from Helena to Cut Bank. The higher amounts
might be a bit widespread, but the potential for a several hour
rainfall and areas receiving around 0.50 inch rainfall is looking
more likely. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
03/00Z TAF Period

Scattered showers/thunderstorms will affect much of the CWA
through about 04z Thu before slowly beginning to diminish. Strong
wind gusts will be the main impact from any thunderstorm. Expect
similar conditions once again Thursday, with afternoon and
evening showers/thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions should
prevail in between storms. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  90  56  81 /  20  10  10  40
CTB  58  83  50  76 /  10  10   0  10
HLN  59  87  57  78 /  20  30  20  60
BZN  55  88  53  81 /  20  50  30  70
WYS  47  76  43  73 /  10  40  50  80
DLN  54  82  50  74 /  20  70  30  80
HVR  61  93  54  84 /  20   0  10  20
LWT  57  84  56  78 /  40  20  30  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls