Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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507 FXUS65 KTFX 200959 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 358 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers and thunderstorms today, mostly over the eastern portions of the CWA. - Scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening, with a few storms producing heavy rainfall over the eastern portions of the CWA. - After a cool day on Tuesday, turning warmer and drier by the end of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: A weak upper level disturbance will move eastward across the CWA today. This disturbance will allow for a showers/thunderstorms to affect the CWA, with the best chance over the eastern portions of the CWA. On Monday, an upper level trof will start to approach the CWA by the late afternoon hours. This will allow for showers/thunderstorms to develop over much of North Central MT by the evening hours. On Monday evening, precipitable water goes over 1 inch over the eastern portions of the CWA, allowing for the potential for a few storms to produce heavy rainfall. It remains cool, with showers continuing on Tuesday. For Wednesday through Sunday, expect a nice warming trend by late in the work week, with warm temperatures continuing into next weekend. There will be a few isolated showers/thunderstorms later next week, but confidence right now is low in timing. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: On Monday evening, with precipitable water over an inch, some storms east of a line from Havre to Stanford could produce heavy rainfall, with a quick inch of rainfall possible. Later next week, drier air will start to work into the CWA. If any thunderstorms do develop, they will have the potential to produce strong wind gusts. Brusda && .AVIATION... 20/12Z TAF Period. A few showers/thunderstorms will affect the CWA today, with the best chance over the eastern portions later this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Brusda Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 82 56 73 55 / 10 10 40 70 CTB 74 52 61 49 / 10 30 60 70 HLN 83 56 76 54 / 10 20 40 60 BZN 86 51 86 51 / 20 20 30 50 WYS 79 44 81 45 / 20 10 30 20 DLN 83 49 83 50 / 10 10 30 20 HVR 82 55 76 53 / 10 10 20 70 LWT 78 51 77 52 / 30 30 30 80 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls