789
FXUS65 KTFX 221144
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
544 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few storms today, but overall thunderstorm activity is on the
  decrease.

- A gradual warming trend begins tomorrow, with warm temperatures
  expected by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 359 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:
The most significant weather impacts are on the decrease for our
CWA, as an upper level trof begins to pull away into Canada. This
exiting trof will allow for some scattered showers/thunderstorms
to affect the CWA today. Some of the storms still could produce
some brief heavy rain/gusty winds/hail...but the over threat for
widespread severe storms has mostly shifted to our east.

Do expect some morning fog today, along with low cloud ceilings
because of all of the low level moisture.

Afternoon temperatures will still be a bit below normal today,
especially over the North. However, do expect a nice warming trend
from Wed thru Fri, with afternoon temperatures once again
near/above 90 degrees in many areas by late in the week.

The flow aloft by this weekend will shift to the southwest. With
recent moisture, isolated showers/thunderstorms can not be ruled
out.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
The overall confidence in showers/thunderstorms is on the lower
side now, as the main upper level energy has moved to our east.
That being said, do expect precipitation today.

Over the weekend, confidence is low in timing and which days might
have thunderstorm activity, as each model is different. Thus with
no consistency, confidence is low in thunderstorm activity for
later this week. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
22/12Z TAF Period

Expect scattered showers/thunderstorms to affect the CWA through
about 03z Wed, before gradually diminishing. Also, a surface wind
shift to north will occur this afternoon/evening as front moves
southward from Canada.

However, the main impact will be low/dense clouds/fog that will
obscure mountains/passes through much of the period. With ample
low level moisture and not much wind to mix things out, the
clouds are low/thick/dense and could significantly impact aviation
visibility around mountains/passes through much of the period
across the CWA. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  49  80  54 /  40  30  10   0
CTB  62  44  74  49 /  70  30  10   0
HLN  78  50  83  54 /  50  40  10   0
BZN  80  48  83  50 /  60  50  20  10
WYS  75  41  76  39 /  40  20  20   0
DLN  78  45  80  47 /  40  20  10   0
HVR  73  50  78  52 /  60  20  10   0
LWT  71  48  73  50 /  60  60  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls