203
FXUS65 KTFX 072333
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
533 PM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Breezy conditions across the plains this afternoon with periods
   of haze possible.

 - Temperatures will warm through the rest of the weekend and peak
   on Monday with highs in the low 90s for portions of north-
   central Montana.

 - A cooler and wetter pattern is expected to return for the
   middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 243 PM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

As of 2:30 PM, the cold front has moved through most of the state.
A band of scatter showers continues to make its way across
southeastern Alberta into northeastern Montana, clipping Hill and
Blaine counties for the time being. This activity will gradually
taper off heading into the evening hours as a high pressure system
moves into the region. In the meantime, breezy northwest winds are
expected along the hi-line, particularly east of Havre, through at
least 8 PM tonight.

As the high pressure system slides eastward, southwesterly flow
at the surface and mid levels will advect noticeably warmer air
into the area for Sunday and Monday, resulting in a very warm day
Monday with many lower elevation locations seeing highs reach the
upper 80s and lower 90s. This heat will not last long, however, as
a weak surface low pressure system and cold front will push
through late Monday or early Tuesday, bringing cooler surface
temperatures in its wake. A second, stronger system will likely
develop over Eastern Washington and Oregon, which will help funnel
moisture into the area, kicking off scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms, a few of which could be on the stronger
side if sufficient shear (change in wind speed and direction with
height) develops to help storms become a bit more organized. An
unsettled pattern looks to persist through the remainder of the
week as southwesterly flow develops over the area, allowing
Pacific moisture to work into the area.   -Ludwig/thor


 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Wildfire Smoke Today and Tomorrow:

North/northwest flow has the potential to drag some of the
wildfire smoke down out of Canada today through tomorrow evening.
The most likely impacts will be seen in the form of hazy skies,
particularly across north-central Montana. When considering
surface-level impacts the one issue is the HRRR smoke model has
been a little overly aggressive in trying to bring smoke to the
surface. While there will definitely be smoke aloft, the current
thought is that very little, if any, will be able to mix down to
the surface enough to cause reductions in air quality or
visibility. That being said, things could always change and this
will be something to monitor over the next 24 to 36 hours.


Near 90 Degree Temperatures Monday:

The probability of many locations across north-central Montana,
including Great Falls, Fort Benton, and Havre, reaching 90 degrees
is still at a 70-90% chance. Models continue to remain confident
that the plains, and particularly the US-87 corridor between Great
Falls and Havre, will be one of the warmer spots on Monday.
Probabilities drop off quickly heading south of a line between
Great Falls and Winifred with locations such as Helena having
40-60% chance of reaching 90 degrees and most other locations such
as Lewistown, Bozeman, and across the southwest valleys having a
less than 5% chance.  -thor


&&

.AVIATION...
08/00Z TAF Period

An upper level ridge is building over Western MT currently,
resulting in a northwesterly flow over Central MT. Expect a few
isolated sprinkles this evening, otherwise skies will generally be
clearing out later tonight. Some smoke will move southward from
Canada into North Central MT, with the Havre area likely to be the
most affected. On Sunday, the upper level ridge will move eastward
over Central MT, with mostly clear skies, but do expect increasing
winds on Sunday afternoon over the eastern portions of North
Central MT. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  77  50  90 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  42  77  47  89 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  50  80  53  90 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  46  76  46  86 /  10   0   0   0
WYS  39  73  36  79 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  46  77  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  43  76  45  93 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  43  69  46  84 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls