236
FXUS65 KTFX 280050
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
650 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Hot and dry through the week, with heat peaking on Saturday.

 - Wildfire smoke around most days.

 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms most days this week, mostly
   across Southwest Montana.

&&

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast is out. No significant changes, just updated
towards current trends. A few isolated showers/thunderstorms are
mostly affecting Southwest MT, mostly south of a line from Butte
to Bozeman. These storms should diminish around Midnight.
Lightning will be the main impact from any storm this evening.

Otherwise, generally hot afternoon temperatures expected the next
several days, with Saturday looking to be the warmest day. Smoke
will continue to impact much of the CWA for the next several days
as well. Brusda

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 200 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Upper level ridging across the central CONUS will allow for a
persistent southwesterly flow aloft across the Northern Rockies this
week. Wildfire smoke from Oregon, Washington and vicinity will more
or less continue to be ushered into the region through the week,
resulting in continued hazy/smoky skies. Temperatures do look to
slowly trend warmer through the week, though there is some
uncertainty as to how quickly the trend develops.

Weak waves progressing through the southwesterly flow aloft will
yield the risk for a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms most
days this week, mainly east of I-15 across Southwest Montana. These
looks to produce little in way of precipitation, however.

The heat looks to peak on Saturday immediately ahead of the breaking
down of the upper level ridge. As the ridge breaks down late
Saturday into Sunday, breezy winds look to develop in most areas.
This ridge breakdown looks to be completely dry, which raises
concerns for fire weather, should the windier scenario unfold. -AM

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Temperatures this week:

Wildfire smoke will play a large role in just how quickly
temperatures trend warmer this week across the region. Regardless,
temperatures will be above average during the climatologically
hottest portion of the year, which is notable. Those working
outside this week should take extra care to mitigate impacts from
both the heat and wildfire smoke.

Ridge breakdown this weekend:

Confidence remains high that a ridge breakdown will occur this
weekend. Temperatures immediately ahead of this ridge breakdown look
to trend even further above average Saturday before falling
Sunday as breezier westerly winds ensue. The uncertainty with this
system will be for the timing of the stronger winds aloft. They
presently look to be timed to occur overnight, which would result
in a slightly less breezy day (But certainly still breezy) into
Sunday. Should the stronger winds aloft be delayed slightly,
Sunday would trend much breezier. -AM

&&

.AVIATION...
28/00Z TAF Period

Wildfire smoke from the Pacific Northwest will be the primary
concern through the TAF period. Visibilities can drop down to MVFR
at times due to the smoke across North-Central MT. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms continue through 28/06z for mainly
Southwest MT. Gusty winds will be possible with thunderstorms.
There`s a low end chance for another round of isolated showers
and thunderstorms for Southwest MT Tuesday.

For KGTF: Winds will remain light and variable through Tuesday
morning. By Tuesday afternoon, winds will prevail more out of the
west. Probabilities for a 15kt crosswind remain low through the
morning (10%), but it increases to 50% by 28/22z. -Wilson


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  94  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  54  90  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  63  94  60  93 /   0  10  10  20
BZN  59  94  58  92 /  20  20  20  20
WYS  50  87  49  84 /  10  10  10  40
DLN  57  91  55  88 /  10  10  10  20
HVR  60  97  60  96 /   0   0  10   0
LWT  59  93  58  90 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls