321
FXUS65 KTFX 061724
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1124 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - This afternoon and evening there will be gusty winds across
   North-central Montana with the strongest winds along the Rocky
   Mountain Front and adjacent plains.

 - Today it will be warm but it briefly cools on Saturday across
   North-central Montana with isolated rain showers across North-
   central, Central, and Southwestern Montana today and Saturday.

 - It will warm up Sunday through early next week with a trend
   towards a cooler and wetter pattern for the middle of the week
   through at least next Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
/Issued 756 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025/

Satellite imagery this morning shows some high clouds beginning
to spill down into NW MT ahead of an upper level disturbance
moving through BC, with little or no clouds currently across
central/SW but some thin layers of higher level smoke are evident.
An overall dry and noticeably warmer day is on track with clouds
increasing ahead of the BC disturbance. Lower surface pressure
developing across AB will support somewhat breezy west to
southwest winds across most of the area by this afternoon with
locally windy conditions (gusts as high as 30-40 mph possible)
along the northern Rocky Mtn Front and across Glacier, Toole and
Pondera counties. Hoenisch

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 756 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Today through Saturday there will be a couple of upper-level
shortwave troughs that will move through with northwest flow aloft
over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will
bring isolated showers to the area today and Saturday. Today rain
showers will be mostly confined to the Hi-Line. There will be a
slightly greater coverage of showers on Saturday. The shortwave
trough that moves through this afternoon will bring gusty winds to
North-central Montana this afternoon through this evening with the
strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains.
This evening through early Saturday morning a cold front from Canada
will push south through North-central Montana. This will cool down
high temperatures on Saturday to around seasonal averages across
North-central Montana.

On Sunday an upper-level ridge builds in over North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will warm temperatures up to
above seasonal averages with mostly dry weather. The upper-level
ridge will remain over North-central, Central, and Southwestern
Montana on Monday. This will allow temperatures to warm up to well-
above seasonal averages with dry conditions. On Tuesday the upper-
level ridge will remain over North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana. An upper-level shortwave will move through the
upper-level ridge and bring showers and thunderstorms to the area
Tuesday afternoon and evening. On Wednesday and Thursday quick
moving upper-level shortwaves will move through the upper-level flow
over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will
allow temperatures to cool to near seasonal averages with showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Today there is greater than a 60% chance for wind gusts of 40 mph or
greater along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. On
Saturday there is a 15% chance for thunderstorms in Central and
Southwestern Montana. On Sunday and Monday in Southwestern Montana
there is a 15% chance for thunderstorms. On Tuesday and Thursday
there is a 20 - 50% chance for thunderstorms across North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Wednesday there is a 30 - 55%
chance for thunderstorms across North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana.

Wednesday through Thursday there is a 40 - 75% chance for a quarter
inch of rain or greater and a 20 - 50% chance for half an inch of
rain or greater across North-central, Central, and Southwestern
Montana. On Monday and Tuesday there is a 30 - 60% chance for high
temperatures of 90 degrees or greater across North-central Montana.
On Tuesday there is a 45% chance for high temperatures of 90 degrees
or greater in the Helena and Gallatin Valleys. -IG

&&

.AVIATION...
06/18Z TAF Period

Expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours as a surface high
pressure remains over the area. Though this high pressure will
generally keep things tranquil, a passing upper level shortwave
trough will bring a period of increased mid and upper level
clouds, along with a few showers across the higher terrain and
some gusty winds to 35 knots along the Rocky Mountain Front this
afternoon. After 07/12Z increasing low to mid-level clouds will
move in across north-central and central Montana. This will bring
CIGS at KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, and KLWT down to low-VFR through at
least 07/18Z.  Ludwig/thor

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  80  53  67  46 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  78  51  66  43 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  81  54  80  50 /  10   0  10   0
BZN  78  46  79  46 /   0   0   0  10
WYS  69  37  73  39 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  76  44  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  84  54  71  44 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  76  50  65  44 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls