925
FXUS65 KTFX 041519
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
819 AM MST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Mainly light precipitation at times into early this afternoon.

 - Another period of gusty winds over the plains both Thursday
   and Friday.

 - Additional light mountain snow Thursday and Friday, primarily
   along the Continental Divide.

&&

.UPDATE...

Today light precipitation will linger this morning across North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Another round of light
precipitation will push into Southwestern Montana this evening.
Otherwise it will be cool today across North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana. For the update the only significant change
was to move the High Wind Watch for the Cut Bank area 24 hours
later and extend it eastward across the Hi-Line and for Southern
Blaine County. See the TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES for
details. The rest of the forecast is on track. -IG

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 503 AM MST Tue Nov 4 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:
Pacific moisture within a zonal flow aloft continues across the
Northern Rockies early this morning. The bulk of mountain snow
looks to continue largely north of Lincoln to the Canadian border
through the morning hours today before diminishing. Additional
snow at Marias Pass of 1 to 3 inches is likely this morning. Thus
a winter weather advisory is in effect until Noon today.
Elsewhere warmer temperatures both near the surface and aloft will
largely allow for precipitation type to be rain, aside from the
highest elevations.

Very brief ridging develops for Wednesday, which will allow for
warmer temperatures across Southwest Montana to spread further north
onto the plains. Much of Wednesday looks benign in most areas, but
upper level troughing will quickly break down the ridge Wednesday
night. Mid level flow increases rather rapidly across northern
portions of the region as the ridge breakdown occurs, eclipsing 50
kts by late Wednesday evening. BUFKIT soundings at Cut Bank develop
a stable layer late Wednesday evening, with 50 kt winds at the base
of it. Profiles similar to this persist through the daytime around
Cut Bank, with daytime mixing enhancing the potential for more
widespread gusty winds. As such, a High Wind Watch has been issued
for areas around Cut Bank from late Wednesday evening through the
day Thursday. Should confidence increase in higher winds/gusts
further west along the Rocky Mountain Front where criteria is
higher, additional High Wind Watches will be considered.

All the while, additional Pacific moisture will result in mainly
light additional periods of precipitation along the Continental
Divide late Wednesday into Thursday.

Another shortwave in the largely zonal flow moves across the region
late Friday into Friday night. Ahead of this wave a respectable lee
side trough will develop in Alberta, eventually kicking off onto the
plains Friday evening/night. Breezy winds look to develop once again
Friday as a result, with potential for gusty winds to continue into
Friday night once the lee side troughing kicks off to the east and
results in at least modest pressure rises associated with a front.

The persistent westerly flow aloft continues with this system. Most
precipitation will be favored along the Continental Divide, though
there does appear to be higher probabilities for precipitation to
make it out onto the plains late Friday/Friday night, should the
front result in any shower activity.

Lingering northwesterly flow aloft behind the departing trough will
result in some lingering precipitation into Saturday, largely in
northwesterly upslope favored areas. After that, upper level ridging
is favored to build in, resulting in at least a brief period of
benign conditions Saturday evening through Sunday night. Ensembles
begin to diverge in the pattern thereafter, largely associated with
how quickly the next upper troughing breaks down the ridge early
next week. -AM/Brusda

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Wind Late Wednesday night into Thursday:

As mentioned a bit in the meteorological overview, BUFKIT soundings
suggest mountain wave activity will develop as early as late
Wednesday evening. Additional mixing looks to ensue during the day
Thursday, which gives confidence that strong wind gusts will be
observed at times over this timeframe. Probabilistic guidance gives
a roughly 70% probability for a 58 mph gust at Cut Bank over this
timeframe.

Additional gusty winds Friday:

A rather potent trough moving across the Northern Rockies will
result in another period of gusty winds Friday. Probabilistic
guidance is a bit less bullish on the prospects for high winds in
most areas. The probability for a 58 mph gust in Cut Bank is around
50% at this time. -AM

&&

.AVIATION...
04/12Z TAF Period

Light rain and snow showers will affect the CWA through mid
afternoon, before slowly diminishing for a short time. A new
round of light rain then redevelops after 07z Wed over Southwest
MT. Expect mountains to be obscured through much of the period.
Brusda


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  30  56  41 /  50  10   0  10
CTB  46  26  48  37 /  30   0   0  10
HLN  53  34  60  39 /  70  10   0  30
BZN  55  34  62  36 /  40  10   0  30
WYS  45  29  52  30 /  50  30   0  70
DLN  55  36  59  33 /  20  10   0  20
HVR  50  23  54  35 /  40   0  10  10
LWT  48  27  58  38 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST today for East Glacier
Park Region.

High Wind Watch from this evening through Wednesday afternoon
for Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera.

High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
afternoon for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Eastern
Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Eastern Toole and
Liberty-Hill County-Northern Blaine County.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls