422
FXUS65 KTFX 221106
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
506 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Temperatures will gradually warm up today through the weekend
   and remain near to above seasonal averages through the middle
   of next week.

 - It will be mostly dry through Sunday with precipitation chances
   increasing by the middle of next week.

 - Today and Saturday it will be hazy in Southwestern Montana due
   to smoke from wildfires.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 221 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Today an upper-level ridge begins to move over North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. This combined with northwest flow
aloft will bring cooler temperatures with mostly dry weather to the
area today. On Saturday the upper-level ridge remains over North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow
temperatures to warm up a few degrees with mostly dry weather. Today
and Saturday it will be smoky in Southwestern Montana due to smoke
from wildfires.

Sunday through Thursday the upper-level ridge remains over North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow for
temperatures to warm up to slightly above seasonal averages each day
with mostly dry weather. On Tuesday and Wednesday an upper-level
shortwave moves through the upper-level flow. This combined with
some monsoonal moisture will allow for isolated showers and
thunderstorms in Southwestern Montana on Tuesday and Wednesday with
the greatest coverage along the Montana/Idaho Border.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

The greatest uncertainty in this forecast period is if enough
monsoonal moisture can make it up to Southwestern Montana on Tuesday
and Wednesday to allow showers and thunderstorms to form. On
Tuesday and Wednesday there is a 20 - 35% chance for thunderstorms
in Southwestern Montana with the highest chances along the
Montana/Idaho Border. Overall there is high confidence in the
upper-level pattern during this forecast period. -IG

&&

.AVIATION...
22/12Z TAF Period.

VFR conditions will prevail across the CWA through the period.
There will be some passing mid clouds through about 00z Saturday,
with areas of broken skies this morning. Some mountain
ranges/passes in Central/Southwest MT could be obscured by smoke.
Breezy winds at times as well today. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  75  48  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  71  44  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  80  49  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  82  44  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  81  38  83  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  81  44  86  47 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  75  46  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  72  45  77  47 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls