134
FXUS65 KTFX 042109
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
305 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Showers and thunderstorms are expected today through tonight,
   putting a damper on area firework displays.
 - Another round of showers and thunderstorms expected on
   Saturday, some may produce gusty outflow winds and hail,
   especially east of a Great Falls to Havre line.
 - Warm temperatures return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 240 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

While the day started out on the dry and mostly sunny side across
North Central and Southwestern Montana, a low pressure system has
pushed its way into Western Montana, and has brought a line of
showers and thunderstorms through Southwestern Montana during the
early afternoon, and this line will push through North Central
Montana. In addition to this first line, a second line of showers
and storms is expected to push through mainly Southwestern Montana
this evening. While this hasnt been an issue as of 3PM, a few
stronger wind gusts over 50 mph cant entirely be ruled out,
though the risk of this appears to be on the low side.

Rain will continue to progress northward overnight before
stalling near or just north of the Canadian Border, focusing on
the Glacier National Park region for the overnight. This system
will then move eastward tomorrow, triggering some showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon as it does so. Again, a few of
the storms may produce some gusty winds, especially east of a
Great Falls to Havre line.

As we head into next week, upper level ridging will begin to
build across the Northern Rockies, but will not last long as a
weak trough will make its way through the area late in the week,
bringing thunderstorm chances back to the area ahead of some
cooler temperatures.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Overall, the confidence in the forecast over the next week is
fairly high outside of the exact location of the heaviest rain
overnight tonight and tomorrow. The biggest area of concern is
just how hot it gets around the middle of next week, as there is
some potential for scattered triple digit temperatures on
Wednesday across the plains. The most likely locations to see
temperatures this high will be Great Falls and Havre, which have a
30% and 60% chance of seeing 100 respectively. Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
05/00Z TAF Period

Main concern will be showers/thunderstorms moving northward
through Central and North Central MT this evening. The main
impact from storms will be lightning/strong wind gusts. The
thunderstorms will transition into an area of light rain on Sat
morning, mainly along/north of a line from Cut to Havre. On Saturday
afternoon, scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible once
again as well over much of the CWA. Some periods of MVFR conditions
are possible in/near storms. Some mountain passes will be obscured
at times by passing storms. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  53  74  49  82 /  80  70  20   0
CTB  51  63  45  76 /  90  80  10   0
HLN  53  74  50  82 /  80  70  10   0
BZN  49  77  46  82 /  80  70  20   0
WYS  40  71  36  75 /  50  60  10   0
DLN  43  73  43  78 /  50  50  10   0
HVR  55  73  49  82 /  80  70  40  10
LWT  50  71  46  76 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls