609
FXUS65 KTFX 102038
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
238 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Recent period of showery/stormy weather has largely come to an
   end.
 - Mostly tranquil and seasonable through Thursday.
 - Only a few isolated showers through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:

Northwesterly flow has replaced a slow moving upper level low
that had lingered over the area over the past few days, which will
help bring a drier and gradually warmer pattern to the area. For
the most part, expect mostly clear skies through the week, with
just a few isolated and brief afternoon and evening showers that
may be able to pop up here and there through Thursday. Shower
chances increase Thursday night and Friday as a trough crosses
through Alberta and Saskatchewan, but even these chances appear to
be on the low side at the moment.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios

Biggest area of uncertainty this week is from low end chances of a
shower or thunderstorm developing across some portion of the area.
While any shower or storm shouldnt be overly impactful on a
societal scale, these showers could cause some minor issues for
those trying to harvest crops. As we head to Thursday and Friday
of this week, the trough mentioned above will push through and
likely bring some more organized showers, but right now there
remains some disagreement with respect to the depth and speed of
the trough, leading to less confidence in the showers it will
bring. Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
10/18Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail through the period.

There is a less than 15% chance for an isolated shower or
thunderstorm along the Hi-Line including at KHVR. At this time,
confidence in timing and impacts was too low to include in the
TAFs but the main concern with any developing thunderstorm will be
gusty, erratic winds and lightning.

The bulk of the wildfire smoke will continue to push to the east
allowing for VFR visibility to persist at KHVR through the rest of
the period. The only lingering concern will be the potential for
reductions in slantwise visibility which may linger through the
rest of the day.  -thor


Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  79  56  90 /   0  10   0   0
CTB  57  74  53  86 /  10  10   0   0
HLN  58  84  56  91 /   0  10   0   0
BZN  51  85  52  91 /  10   0   0  10
WYS  38  79  40  83 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  49  83  50  89 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  58  78  55  87 /  20  20   0   0
LWT  55  75  53  84 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls