614
FXXX10 KWNP 151231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Feb 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 15-Feb 17 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 15-Feb 17 2026

             Feb 15       Feb 16       Feb 17
00-03UT       5.33 (G1)    4.67 (G1)    3.67
03-06UT       5.33 (G1)    5.00 (G1)    3.67
06-09UT       3.00         4.00         2.67
09-12UT       2.67         3.67         2.67
12-15UT       5.67 (G2)    3.67         2.00
15-18UT       3.67         2.67         1.67
18-21UT       4.67 (G1)    2.67         1.67
21-00UT       3.67         3.33         2.67

Rationale: Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming are
expected on 15 Feb due to CIR effects and the onset of positive polarity
CH HSS influences. Weak CME enhancements are possible on 15 Feb as a CME
from 11 Feb passes in close proximity. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming
are likely on 16 Feb, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) storm periods,
under continued positive polarity CH HSS influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 15-Feb 17 2026

              Feb 15  Feb 16  Feb 17
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 15-Feb 17 2026

              Feb 15        Feb 16        Feb 17
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
flares through 17 Feb.