326
FXXX10 KWNP 230031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Nov 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 23-Nov 25 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 23-Nov 25 2024

             Nov 23       Nov 24       Nov 25
00-03UT       3.00         2.33         2.33
03-06UT       3.67         2.67         3.00
06-09UT       2.00         2.33         2.00
09-12UT       1.67         2.33         2.00
12-15UT       1.33         2.00         1.67
15-18UT       0.67         2.00         2.00
18-21UT       1.00         2.00         2.00
21-00UT       1.00         1.67         2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 23-Nov 25 2024

              Nov 23  Nov 24  Nov 25
S1 or greater   10%      5%      5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance of S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms on 23-25 Nov.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 22 2024 1546 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 23-Nov 25 2024

              Nov 23        Nov 24        Nov 25
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: M-class flares (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) are likely, with a
slight chance of X-class (R3-Strong) flares, on 23-25 Nov.