600
FXXX10 KWNP 051231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Jun 05 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 05-Jun 07 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 05-Jun 07 2025

             Jun 05       Jun 06       Jun 07
00-03UT       3.67         3.33         3.33
03-06UT       2.33         4.00         3.67
06-09UT       2.33         3.67         3.00
09-12UT       3.00         3.00         2.33
12-15UT       3.33         3.00         2.00
15-18UT       3.00         2.00         3.00
18-21UT       4.00         2.00         3.67
21-00UT       5.67 (G2)    2.67         4.67 (G1)

Rationale: G1 to G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely on
05 Jun due to waning CME and CH HSS influences. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storming is likely again on 07 Jun due to CME influences from the 04 Jun
filament eruption.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 05-Jun 07 2025

              Jun 05  Jun 06  Jun 07
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms will
persist through 07 Jun given the flare potential and history of AR 4100
in particular.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 04 2025 2328 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 05-Jun 07 2025

              Jun 05        Jun 06        Jun 07
R1-R2           45%           45%           45%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: A chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, with a
slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, will persist through 07
Jun.