388
FXXX10 KWNP 130031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Jul 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 13-Jul 15 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 13-Jul 15 2025

             Jul 13       Jul 14       Jul 15
00-03UT       2.67         1.67         2.33
03-06UT       3.67         2.67         2.67
06-09UT       4.00         3.00         2.67
09-12UT       3.67         2.67         2.00
12-15UT       2.67         2.00         2.33
15-18UT       2.00         1.67         1.00
18-21UT       1.67         2.33         1.00
21-00UT       2.67         2.67         2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 13-Jul 15 2025

              Jul 13  Jul 14  Jul 15
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 12 2025 0834 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 13-Jul 15 2025

              Jul 13        Jul 14        Jul 15
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are are likely over
13-15 Jul.