582
FXXX10 KWNP 130031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Nov 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 9 (NOAA Scale
G5).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 is 8.33 (NOAA Scale
G4).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 13-Nov 15 2025

             Nov 13       Nov 14       Nov 15
00-03UT       8.00 (G4)    4.67 (G1)    2.33
03-06UT       8.33 (G4)    4.00         3.00
06-09UT       7.33 (G3)    3.33         2.33
09-12UT       5.00 (G1)    3.67         2.00
12-15UT       4.33         3.33         1.33
15-18UT       4.00         3.00         1.33
18-21UT       4.33         3.00         2.00
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    3.33         2.33

Rationale: G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storming remains likely, primarily
during the early hours of the 13 Nov UTC-day, due to ongoing CME
effects. Primarily G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming is
likely thereafter, carrying on into the early hours of the 14 Nov
UTC-day as CME effects gradually wane.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025

              Nov 13  Nov 14  Nov 15
S1 or greater   99%     75%     45%

Rationale: S1 (Minor) to S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storms are
expected to continue through 13 Nov before decreasing to the lower ends
of the S1 (Minor) threshold over the course of 14 Nov as CME influences
pass beyond the near-Earth environment.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025

              Nov 13        Nov 14        Nov 15
R1-R2           85%           85%           85%
R3 or greater   55%           55%           55%

Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radioblackouts are expected through 15
Nov and are likely to be accompanied by isolated R3 (Strong) events as
AR 4274 makes it approach towards the western limb of the solar disk.