125
FXXX10 KWNP 161231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Nov 16 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 16-Nov 18 2025

             Nov 16       Nov 17       Nov 18
00-03UT       3.67         3.67         3.00
03-06UT       3.33         4.67 (G1)    3.67
06-09UT       2.67         4.00         3.00
09-12UT       3.33         3.67         2.67
12-15UT       2.33         3.33         2.33
15-18UT       3.00         3.33         2.33
18-21UT       3.67         3.00         2.33
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    3.00         2.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 16-17 Nov due
to a combination of a influence from a CME that left the Sun on 14 Nov
and the anticipated influence of a negative polarity coronal hole.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025

              Nov 16  Nov 17  Nov 18
S1 or greater   15%     10%      5%

Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms over 16-17 Nov due to potential from Region 4274 as it
rotates further around the Suns W limb.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 16 2025 0817 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025

              Nov 16        Nov 17        Nov 18
R1-R2           60%           55%           20%
R3 or greater   15%           15%            1%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 16-17 Nov due o the flare potential
from Region 4274 just beyond the the Suns W limb. Only a slight chance
remains for R1 events by 18 Nov.