Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
927
FXXX10 KWNP 171231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Jul 17 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 17-Jul 19 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 17-Jul 19 2025
Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul 19
00-03UT 3.67 3.33 3.00
03-06UT 3.67 3.67 2.67
06-09UT 3.67 3.00 2.33
09-12UT 3.67 3.33 2.00
12-15UT 3.00 2.33 1.33
15-18UT 2.33 2.00 1.33
18-21UT 2.67 2.33 1.67
21-00UT 3.67 2.67 1.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 17-Jul 19 2025
Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul 19
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) conditions through 19
Jul due to the flaring potential from multiple regions on the solar
disk.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 17-Jul 19 2025
Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul 19
R1-R2 65% 65% 65%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flaring (R3, Strong)
through 19 Jul due to the flare potential of Regions 4136, 4139, 4142,
and 4143.