Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
398
FXXX10 KWNP 161231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Aug 16 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 16-Aug 18 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 16-Aug 18 2025
Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 18
00-03UT 1.33 1.67 3.33
03-06UT 2.00 1.67 3.00
06-09UT 1.33 1.33 3.00
09-12UT 2.00 1.33 3.00
12-15UT 1.33 1.33 3.00
15-18UT 1.33 1.33 3.33
18-21UT 1.33 1.33 3.67
21-00UT 1.67 1.67 3.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 16-Aug 18 2025
Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 18
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 16-Aug 18 2025
Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 18
R1-R2 25% 25% 15%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 1%
Rationale: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels on 16-17
August becoming likely on 18 August. There is a chance for moderate
(R1-minor) levels on 16-17 August decreasing to a slight chance on 18
August.