043
FXXX10 KWNP 191231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Oct 19 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 19-Oct 21 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 19-Oct 21 2024

             Oct 19       Oct 20       Oct 21
00-03UT       4.67 (G1)    3.67         1.33
03-06UT       4.33         3.33         1.67
06-09UT       3.67         3.00         1.33
09-12UT       3.00         3.00         1.33
12-15UT       2.00         2.00         1.33
15-18UT       2.00         2.00         1.33
18-21UT       2.67         1.67         1.67
21-00UT       3.00         1.67         1.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms were observed during the
19/00-03z period.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 19-Oct 21 2024

              Oct 19  Oct 20  Oct 21
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms over 19-21 Oct.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 19 2024 0656 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 19-Oct 21 2024

              Oct 19        Oct 20        Oct 21
R1-R2           60%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely over 19-21
Oct.