Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
702
FXXX10 KWNP 111841
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Nov 11 1840 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 11-Nov 13 2025 is 7.33 (NOAA Scale
G3).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 11-Nov 13 2025
Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13
00-03UT 2.33 5.00 (G1) 6.67 (G3)
03-06UT 2.67 7.33 (G3) 6.33 (G2)
06-09UT 1.67 6.00 (G2) 6.00 (G2)
09-12UT 2.33 4.67 (G1) 4.67 (G1)
12-15UT 0.33 4.33 4.00
15-18UT 0.67 8.00 (G4) 3.33
18-21UT 1.33 7.67 (G4) 4.33
21-00UT 5.67 (G2) 7.00 (G3) 4.67 (G1)
Rationale: (UPDATE) CME activity from 09-11 Nov is likely to cause G2
(Moderate) levels late on 11 Nov, G1-G4 (Minor-Severe) levels on 12 Nov,
and G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storm levels on 13 Nov.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 11-Nov 13 2025
Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13
S1 or greater 99% 75% 65%
Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
above the S1 (Minor) threshold through 12 Nov, with S2 levels possible
through 12 Nov. Further enhancements are possible with the arrival of
the 09-11 Nov CMEs on 11 and 12 Nov.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 11 2025 1004 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 11-Nov 13 2025
Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13
R1-R2 85% 85% 85%
R3 or greater 55% 55% 55%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with
further R3 (Strong) activity likely on 11-13 Nov due to the flare
potential of Region 4274.