Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
692
FXXX10 KWNP 241231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Nov 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 24-Nov 26 2024 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 24-Nov 26 2024
Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov 26
00-03UT 1.67 2.33 1.67
03-06UT 1.67 2.33 1.67
06-09UT 1.67 1.33 1.33
09-12UT 1.00 1.00 1.33
12-15UT 2.67 0.67 1.33
15-18UT 2.00 0.67 1.33
18-21UT 2.00 1.00 1.33
21-00UT 2.67 1.67 1.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 24-Nov 26 2024
Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov 26
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 23 2024 1607 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 24-Nov 26 2024
Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov 26
R1-R2 60% 60% 60%
R3 or greater 15% 15% 15%
Rationale: M-class flares (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) are likely, with a
slight chance of X-class (R3-Strong) flares, on 24-26 Nov.