812
FXXX10 KWNP 121231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Mar 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 12-Mar 14 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 12-Mar 14 2025

             Mar 12       Mar 13       Mar 14
00-03UT       3.67         3.67         3.33
03-06UT       3.67         2.67         3.00
06-09UT       3.33         2.67         3.67
09-12UT       4.00         2.67         3.33
12-15UT       4.33         3.67         3.00
15-18UT       4.67 (G1)    2.67         3.67
18-21UT       2.67         2.67         3.33
21-00UT       3.00         2.67         3.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are expected on 12 Mar
due to prolonged periods of southward Bz.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 12-Mar 14 2025

              Mar 12  Mar 13  Mar 14
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 11 2025 1304 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 12-Mar 14 2025

              Mar 12        Mar 13        Mar 14
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with an increased chance
for further M-class flaring (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 12-14 Mar.