Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
035
FXXX10 KWNP 140031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Aug 14 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 14-Aug 16 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 14-Aug 16 2025
Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16
00-03UT 2.67 2.67 1.67
03-06UT 3.67 3.67 1.67
06-09UT 2.33 2.33 1.33
09-12UT 2.00 2.00 1.33
12-15UT 2.00 2.00 1.33
15-18UT 2.00 2.00 1.33
18-21UT 2.33 2.33 1.33
21-00UT 2.33 2.33 1.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 14-Aug 16 2025
Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16
S1 or greater 10% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms on 14 Aug.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 14-Aug 16 2025
Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16
R1-R2 50% 45% 45%
R3 or greater 10% 5% 5%
Rationale: A high chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due
to M-class flare activity, most likely from Regions 4178 and/or 4172,
will persist through 16 August. Probabilities will begin to
decrease slightly on 15 August as Region 4178 exits the visible solar
disk.