Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
473
FXXX10 KWNP 211231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Feb 21 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 21-Feb 23 2025 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 21-Feb 23 2025
Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb 23
00-03UT 3.00 1.67 1.67
03-06UT 0.67 1.33 1.33
06-09UT 1.00 1.33 1.33
09-12UT 1.33 1.33 1.33
12-15UT 1.33 1.33 1.33
15-18UT 1.33 1.33 1.67
18-21UT 1.67 1.67 1.67
21-00UT 1.67 1.67 1.33
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 21-Feb 23 2025
Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb 23
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 21-Feb 23 2025
Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb 23
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for
isolated M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) activity and a slight chance
for X-class (R3, Strong) activity through 23 Feb.