Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
118
FXXX10 KWNP 160031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Nov 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 16-Nov 18 2025
Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18
00-03UT 3.67 3.67 3.00
03-06UT 1.67 4.67 (G1) 3.67
06-09UT 1.33 4.00 3.00
09-12UT 1.33 3.67 2.67
12-15UT 2.00 3.33 2.33
15-18UT 2.00 3.33 2.33
18-21UT 3.33 3.00 2.33
21-00UT 5.00 (G1) 3.00 2.00
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 16-17 Nov due
to the anticipated influence of a negative polarity coronal hole.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025
Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18
S1 or greater 15% 10% 5%
Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms over 16-17 Nov due to the eruptive potential from
Region 4274.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025
Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18
R1-R2 60% 55% 40%
R3 or greater 20% 15% 5%
Rationale: R1 (Minor) radio blackouts are likely, with a chance for R3
(Strong), over 16-17 Nov due to the flare potential from Region 4274. By
18 Nov, there is a chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts due to the
flare potential from Region 4274.