338
FXXX10 KWNP 121231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Feb 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 12-Feb 14 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 12-Feb 14 2025

             Feb 12       Feb 13       Feb 14
00-03UT       3.33         3.67         3.33
03-06UT       4.00         3.33         2.00
06-09UT       3.00         2.67         2.00
09-12UT       3.33         2.67         3.00
12-15UT       3.00         3.33         3.00
15-18UT       3.67         3.33         3.00
18-21UT       4.00         3.67         3.33
21-00UT       4.33         4.67 (G1)    4.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) storm periods are likely on 13 Feb due to onset of
a subsequent negative polarity CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 12-Feb 14 2025

              Feb 12  Feb 13  Feb 14
S1 or greater    5%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 12-Feb 14 2025

              Feb 12        Feb 13        Feb 14
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            1%            1%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) activity on 12-14 Feb.