969
FXXX10 KWNP 151231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Oct 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 15-Oct 17 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 15-Oct 17 2025

             Oct 15       Oct 16       Oct 17
00-03UT       3.67         3.67         5.00 (G1)
03-06UT       3.33         3.33         4.67 (G1)
06-09UT       3.33         3.00         3.67
09-12UT       2.00         2.67         3.67
12-15UT       2.00         2.67         3.67
15-18UT       2.00         3.33         3.33
18-21UT       3.00         5.33 (G1)    3.00
21-00UT       4.00         5.67 (G2)    2.67

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions are
likely over 16-17 Oct due to the arrival of multiple CMEs from 11-13
Oct.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 15-Oct 17 2025

              Oct 15  Oct 16  Oct 17
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
event above the S1 (Minor) levels through 17 Oct.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 15 2025 0415 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 15-Oct 17 2025

              Oct 15        Oct 16        Oct 17
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: Minor to moderate (R1-R2) radio blackouts are likely for the
next 3 days, with a slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, due
to the current and potential flare activity of Regions 4246 and 4248.