Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
064
FXXX10 KWNP 310031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Jan 31 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 31-Feb 02 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 31-Feb 02 2025
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02
00-03UT 2.00 3.67 3.00
03-06UT 1.67 4.67 (G1) 3.67
06-09UT 2.00 4.67 (G1) 3.67
09-12UT 2.00 4.00 2.67
12-15UT 2.00 3.33 2.00
15-18UT 2.33 3.33 2.00
18-21UT 2.67 3.00 2.00
21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.67
Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are likely late on
31 Jan through 01 Feb due to possible transient effects. No significant
transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast for 02 Feb.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2025
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02
S1 or greater 1% 1% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2025
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02
R1-R2 45% 50% 60%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 10%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackout
events through 01 Feb increasing to likely on 02 Feb.