300
FXXX10 KWNP 061231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Oct 06 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 06-Oct 08 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 06-Oct 08 2025

             Oct 06       Oct 07       Oct 08
00-03UT       1.33         2.00         3.00
03-06UT       0.67         2.67         4.67 (G1)
06-09UT       1.33         3.00         3.33
09-12UT       1.33         2.33         3.00
12-15UT       1.67         4.33         2.00
15-18UT       1.67         3.00         2.00
18-21UT       1.67         4.67 (G1)    2.00
21-00UT       1.67         3.00         3.00

Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are likely on
07-08 Oct due to the anticipated arrival of two slow-moving CMEs that
left the Sun on 03 Oct.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 06-Oct 08 2025

              Oct 06  Oct 07  Oct 08
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms over 06-08 Oct.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 06-Oct 08 2025

              Oct 06        Oct 07        Oct 08
R1-R2           45%           45%           45%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
and a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater event, over 06-08 Oct.