Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
418
FXXX10 KWNP 190031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Aug 19 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 19-Aug 21 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 19-Aug 21 2025
Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug 21
00-03UT 3.67 3.67 3.67
03-06UT 5.00 (G1) 3.00 3.67
06-09UT 5.00 (G1) 3.00 3.33
09-12UT 4.00 2.67 2.67
12-15UT 3.67 3.67 2.33
15-18UT 3.33 5.00 (G1) 2.33
18-21UT 3.33 4.67 (G1) 2.33
21-00UT 3.67 4.00 3.00
Rationale: Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are
likely on 19 and 20 August, due to negative polarity CH HSS effects,
followed by a possible glancing blow from a CME that left the Sun on 17
August.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 19-Aug 21 2025
Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug 21
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 19-Aug 21 2025
Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug 21
R1-R2 5% 5% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.