392
FXXX10 KWNP 220031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Aug 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 22-Aug 24 2025 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 22-Aug 24 2025

             Aug 22       Aug 23       Aug 24
00-03UT       2.00         2.00         1.67
03-06UT       3.00         1.67         1.33
06-09UT       2.33         1.33         1.33
09-12UT       1.67         1.00         1.33
12-15UT       1.67         1.00         1.33
15-18UT       2.33         1.33         1.33
18-21UT       2.00         1.67         1.67
21-00UT       2.00         1.67         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 22-Aug 24 2025

              Aug 22  Aug 23  Aug 24
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 22-Aug 24 2025

              Aug 22        Aug 23        Aug 24
R1-R2           15%           20%           25%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts
through 23 Aug due to the anticipated return of old active regions.
Probabilities increase slightly to a chance for an isolated event, most
likely from the east limb, on 24 Aug as old active regions return to
view.