007
FXXX10 KWNP 231231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Feb 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 23-Feb 25 2025 is 3.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 23-Feb 25 2025

             Feb 23       Feb 24       Feb 25
00-03UT       3.00         1.33         1.67
03-06UT       1.67         1.33         3.33
06-09UT       1.00         2.00         3.00
09-12UT       1.00         2.00         2.00
12-15UT       0.67         2.33         1.67
15-18UT       1.67         2.33         1.67
18-21UT       1.67         2.67         1.33
21-00UT       1.33         2.67         1.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 23-Feb 25 2025

              Feb 23  Feb 24  Feb 25
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms over 23-25 Feb.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Feb 23 2025 0213 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 23-Feb 25 2025

              Feb 23        Feb 24        Feb 25
R1-R2           45%           45%           45%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
and a slight chance for R3 or greater events, over 23-25 Feb.