095
FXXX10 KWNP 111231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Sep 11 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 11-Sep 13 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 11-Sep 13 2025

             Sep 11       Sep 12       Sep 13
00-03UT       4.00         1.67         1.67
03-06UT       2.67         1.33         1.33
06-09UT       2.67         1.33         1.33
09-12UT       2.00         1.33         1.33
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         1.33
15-18UT       1.33         1.33         1.33
18-21UT       2.00         1.67         1.67
21-00UT       2.67         1.67         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 11-Sep 13 2025

              Sep 11  Sep 12  Sep 13
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 11-Sep 13 2025

              Sep 11        Sep 12        Sep 13
R1-R2           25%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 11-13 Sep.