042
FXXX10 KWNP 050031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Oct 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 05-Oct 07 2024 is 7.00 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 05-Oct 07 2024

             Oct 05       Oct 06       Oct 07
00-03UT       5.00 (G1)    7.00 (G3)    3.67
03-06UT       5.00 (G1)    6.67 (G3)    3.00
06-09UT       3.67         6.00 (G2)    3.33
09-12UT       4.00         5.00 (G1)    4.67 (G1)
12-15UT       4.67 (G1)    4.00         5.00 (G1)
15-18UT       6.33 (G2)    4.67 (G1)    3.33
18-21UT       6.67 (G3)    5.00 (G1)    4.00
21-00UT       7.00 (G3)    5.33 (G1)    4.67 (G1)

Rationale: G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely on 05-06 Oct due
to the aforementioned CME effects. A chance for isolated periods of G4
(Severe) storming is possible if the arrival of these CMEs coincide with
one another, and are not separated by an appreciable amount of time as
WSA-Enlil output suggests. However, confidence in this outcome is low.
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 07 Oct with any glancing
influence from the CME that left the Sun early on 04 Oct coupled with
positive polarity CH HSS onset.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 05-Oct 07 2024

              Oct 05  Oct 06  Oct 07
S1 or greater   35%     35%     35%

Rationale: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux
reaching the S1 (Minor) threshold on 05-07 Oct due to the enhanced flare
potential from multiple, magnetically complex regions nearing the
western limb of the solar disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 04 2024 1103 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 05-Oct 07 2024

              Oct 05        Oct 06        Oct 07
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   35%           35%           35%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for isolated R3 (Strong or greater) radio blackouts on 05-07
Oct.