577
FXXX10 KWNP 131231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Nov 13 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale
G3).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 is 7.33 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 13-Nov 15 2025

             Nov 13       Nov 14       Nov 15
00-03UT       7.33 (G3)    4.67 (G1)    2.33
03-06UT       6.67 (G3)    4.00         3.00
06-09UT       6.00 (G2)    3.33         2.33
09-12UT       4.00         3.67         2.00
12-15UT       5.67 (G2)    3.33         1.33
15-18UT       4.00         3.00         1.33
18-21UT       4.33         3.00         2.00
21-00UT       6.67 (G3)    3.33         2.33

Rationale: G1 (Minor) to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storms are likely on 13
Nov. G1 storm levels are likely on 14 Nov, followed by quiet to active
periods until 15 Nov, as the CME ongoing effects gradually wane.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025

              Nov 13  Nov 14  Nov 15
S1 or greater   99%     75%     45%

Rationale: S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms are expected to continue
through the remaining hours of 13 Nov before slowly decreasing to
background levels over 14-15 Nov as CME influences wanes.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025

              Nov 13        Nov 14        Nov 15
R1-R2           85%           85%           80%
R3 or greater   55%           55%           55%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor to Moderate) radio blackouts are expected
through 15 Nov and are likely to be accompanied by isolated R3 (Strong)
events as AR 4274 rotates out of the solar disk in the next few days.