314
FXXX10 KWNP 030031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Oct 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale
G3).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 03-Oct 05 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 03-Oct 05 2025

             Oct 03       Oct 04       Oct 05
00-03UT       5.00 (G1)    4.33         3.67
03-06UT       4.67 (G1)    4.00         3.67
06-09UT       4.67 (G1)    3.33         3.33
09-12UT       3.67         3.00         3.00
12-15UT       3.67         3.00         3.00
15-18UT       3.67         3.00         3.00
18-21UT       3.33         2.67         3.33
21-00UT       3.33         2.67         3.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected on 03
Oct due to persistent CH HSS influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 03-Oct 05 2025

              Oct 03  Oct 04  Oct 05
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 02 2025 0209 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 03-Oct 05 2025

              Oct 03        Oct 04        Oct 05
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts will remain likely
through 05 Oct with a slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event.