588
FXXX10 KWNP 090031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Nov 09 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 09-Nov 11 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 09-Nov 11 2025

             Nov 09       Nov 10       Nov 11
00-03UT       4.67 (G1)    3.00         3.33
03-06UT       3.67         4.67 (G1)    3.67
06-09UT       3.00         5.67 (G2)    3.33
09-12UT       3.00         4.67 (G1)    3.33
12-15UT       2.00         4.33         3.00
15-18UT       2.33         3.67         2.00
18-21UT       3.33         2.67         2.00
21-00UT       3.33         2.67         3.00

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely over
09-11 Nov due to coronal hole and transient influence.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 09-Nov 11 2025

              Nov 09  Nov 10  Nov 11
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms over 09-11 Nov due primarily to the eruptive potential
from Region 4274.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 09-Nov 11 2025

              Nov 09        Nov 10        Nov 11
R1-R2           70%           70%           70%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 09-11 Nov due to the flare potential
from Region 4274.