448
FXXX10 KWNP 120031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Feb 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 12-Feb 14 2026 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 12-Feb 14 2026

             Feb 12       Feb 13       Feb 14
00-03UT       1.67         1.67         3.00
03-06UT       2.00         1.33         2.67
06-09UT       1.67         1.33         2.00
09-12UT       1.33         1.33         2.67
12-15UT       0.67         1.33         2.00
15-18UT       1.00         1.33         2.67
18-21UT       1.67         1.67         2.67
21-00UT       1.67         1.67         3.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 12-Feb 14 2026

              Feb 12  Feb 13  Feb 14
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Feb 11 2026 1312 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 12-Feb 14 2026

              Feb 12        Feb 13        Feb 14
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1 (Minor) or greater radio
blackouts are through 12-14 Feb.