757
FXXX10 KWNP 220031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Nov 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 22-Nov 24 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 22-Nov 24 2024

             Nov 22       Nov 23       Nov 24
00-03UT       2.33         2.33         2.33
03-06UT       2.00         3.00         2.67
06-09UT       0.67         2.33         2.33
09-12UT       1.00         2.00         2.33
12-15UT       1.00         1.33         2.00
15-18UT       1.33         1.33         2.00
18-21UT       1.33         1.67         2.00
21-00UT       1.33         2.33         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 22-Nov 24 2024

              Nov 22  Nov 23  Nov 24
S1 or greater   99%     10%      5%

Rationale: S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected on
22 Nov, decaying to a slight chance on 23 Nov. No proton events are
expected on 24 Nov.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 22-Nov 24 2024

              Nov 22        Nov 23        Nov 24
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for
M-class flares (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) and a slight chance of X-class
(R3-Strong) events 22-24 Nov.