166
FXXX10 KWNP 031231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Nov 03 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 03-Nov 05 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 03-Nov 05 2025

             Nov 03       Nov 04       Nov 05
00-03UT       2.67         2.67         1.67
03-06UT       3.33         2.67         1.33
06-09UT       4.33         2.33         1.33
09-12UT       4.00         2.33         1.33
12-15UT       4.67 (G1)    2.33         1.33
15-18UT       3.67         2.33         1.33
18-21UT       3.00         2.00         1.67
21-00UT       2.67         2.33         1.67

Rationale: Isolated G1 (Minor) storming periods are expected through
03/1500 UTC as CH HSS effects persist.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 03-Nov 05 2025

              Nov 03  Nov 04  Nov 05
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 03 2025 1011 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 03-Nov 05 2025

              Nov 03        Nov 04        Nov 05
R1-R2           35%           50%           55%
R3 or greater    5%           10%           15%

Rationale: There is an increasing chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts through 04 Nov as Region 4274 makes its way further onto the
visible disk. By 05 Nov, R1-2 (Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) are
likely, with a slight chance for an isolated (R3-Strong) event.