Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
992 FXXX10 KWNP 240031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Nov 24 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 24-Nov 26 2024 is 3.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 24-Nov 26 2024 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov 26 00-03UT 2.67 2.33 1.67 03-06UT 3.33 2.33 1.67 06-09UT 2.33 1.33 1.33 09-12UT 2.00 1.00 1.33 12-15UT 1.67 0.67 1.33 15-18UT 1.33 0.67 1.33 18-21UT 1.33 1.00 1.33 21-00UT 1.33 1.67 1.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 24-Nov 26 2024 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov 26 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: S1 (Minor) solar radiation are expected at nominal levels on 24-26 Nov. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 23 2024 1607 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 24-Nov 26 2024 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov 26 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: M-class flares (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) are likely, with a slight chance of X-class (R3-Strong) flares, on 24-26 Nov.