828
FXXX10 KWNP 081231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Nov 08 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 08-Nov 10 2024 is 4.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 08-Nov 10 2024

             Nov 08       Nov 09       Nov 10
00-03UT       2.33         3.67         4.00
03-06UT       1.00         3.00         4.00
06-09UT       1.33         3.00         4.00
09-12UT       1.67         3.00         3.67
12-15UT       2.67         3.33         3.67
15-18UT       3.00         3.33         2.00
18-21UT       3.33         3.67         1.67
21-00UT       2.67         4.33         2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 08-Nov 10 2024

              Nov 08  Nov 09  Nov 10
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms over 08-10 Nov due to potential from multiple complex regions on
the visible disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 07 2024 1506 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 08-Nov 10 2024

              Nov 08        Nov 09        Nov 10
R1-R2           85%           85%           80%
R3 or greater   35%           35%           35%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for R3 (Strong), over 08-10 Nov due to the flare potential from
multiple complex regions on the visible disk.