104
FXXX10 KWNP 061231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Nov 06 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale
G3).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 06-Nov 08 2025 is 7.33 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 06-Nov 08 2025

             Nov 06       Nov 07       Nov 08
00-03UT       5.33 (G1)    7.33 (G3)    4.67 (G1)
03-06UT       6.67 (G3)    6.00 (G2)    4.67 (G1)
06-09UT       5.67 (G2)    5.00 (G1)    4.00
09-12UT       3.33         7.33 (G3)    3.67
12-15UT       3.33         6.33 (G2)    3.33
15-18UT       3.00         4.67 (G1)    3.00
18-21UT       5.67 (G2)    3.67         3.00
21-00UT       6.67 (G3)    3.33         3.67

Rationale: G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely on 06-07
Nov, with G1 (Minor) likely on 08 Nov, due to the arrival of multiple
CMEs coupled with CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 06-Nov 08 2025

              Nov 06  Nov 07  Nov 08
S1 or greater   35%     35%     35%

Rationale: With multiple significant flares occurring from Region 4274 -
further enhancements in the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is possible.
Will maintain a 35% chance for S1 (Minor) storming levels through 08
Nov.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 05 2025 2207 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 06-Nov 08 2025

              Nov 06        Nov 07        Nov 08
R1-R2           80%           80%           80%
R3 or greater   35%           35%           35%

Rationale: Solar activity will remain at moderate to high levels as the
regions in the eastern hemisphere persist in their activity. There is a
80% chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) level radio blackouts, and a 35%
for R3 (Strong) levels through 08 Nov.