568
FXXX10 KWNP 240231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jul 24 0230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 24-Jul 26 2026 is 5.33 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 24-Jul 26 2026

             Jul 24       Jul 25       Jul 26
00-03UT       5.00 (G1)    2.67         2.00
03-06UT       5.00 (G1)    2.33         1.67
06-09UT       4.33         2.00         1.33
09-12UT       3.33         1.33         1.00
12-15UT       2.33         1.33         1.33
15-18UT       2.33         1.67         1.33
18-21UT       3.00         2.00         1.33
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    2.33         1.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic activity is expected on 24 July due to
CH HSS influences and possible CME impacts.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 24-Jul 26 2026

              Jul 24  Jul 25  Jul 26
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 24-Jul 26 2026

              Jul 24        Jul 25        Jul 26
R1-R2           55%           45%           45%
R3 or greater   10%            5%            5%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with a decreasing chance
for further M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 24-26 Jul primarily
due to the flare potential of AR 4493.