Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
323
FXXX10 KWNP 221231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Nov 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 22-Nov 24 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 22-Nov 24 2024
Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24
00-03UT 2.33 2.33 2.33
03-06UT 2.00 3.00 2.67
06-09UT 0.67 2.33 2.33
09-12UT 1.67 2.00 2.33
12-15UT 2.00 1.33 2.00
15-18UT 2.00 1.33 2.00
18-21UT 2.33 1.67 2.00
21-00UT 2.67 2.33 1.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 22-Nov 24 2024
Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24
S1 or greater 99% 50% 5%
Rationale: S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms are expected on 22 Nov.
Probabilities decrease to a chance for a continuing event on 23 Nov as
current conditions are expected to wane barring an additional event.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 22-Nov 24 2024
Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24
R1-R2 50% 50% 50%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for
M-class flares (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) and a slight chance of X-class
(R3-Strong) events 22-24 Nov.