792
FXXX10 KWNP 311231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jan 31 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 31-Feb 02 2026 is 2.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 31-Feb 02 2026

             Jan 31       Feb 01       Feb 02
00-03UT       2.00         1.67         1.67
03-06UT       2.00         1.67         1.33
06-09UT       1.67         1.67         1.00
09-12UT       0.67         1.33         1.00
12-15UT       1.00         1.33         0.67
15-18UT       1.33         1.33         1.33
18-21UT       1.33         1.33         1.67
21-00UT       1.67         1.33         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2026

              Jan 31  Feb 01  Feb 02
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2026

              Jan 31        Feb 01        Feb 02
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: A slight chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due
to isolated M-class flare activity will persist through 02 Feb
primarmily due to the flare potential currently exhbited by AR 4366.