643
FXXX10 KWNP 111231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jul 11 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 11-Jul 13 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 11-Jul 13 2026

             Jul 11       Jul 12       Jul 13
00-03UT       2.33         2.33         3.33
03-06UT       2.33         2.00         3.00
06-09UT       2.33         3.33         2.67
09-12UT       2.00         3.67         2.33
12-15UT       1.67         5.00 (G1)    1.67
15-18UT       1.67         4.67 (G1)    2.00
18-21UT       2.00         4.00         2.00
21-00UT       1.67         3.33         2.33

Rationale: G1 (Minor)geomagnetic storming conditions are expected on 12
Jul due to the anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 09 Jul.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 11-Jul 13 2026

              Jul 11  Jul 12  Jul 13
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 11-Jul 13 2026

              Jul 11        Jul 12        Jul 13
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts through 13 Jul, largely due to the flaring potential of Region
4485.