Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
420
FXXX10 KWNP 010031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jan 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 01-Jan 03 2026 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 01-Jan 03 2026
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03
00-03UT 1.67 3.67 5.00 (G1)
03-06UT 2.33 3.00 6.00 (G2)
06-09UT 2.67 2.67 6.00 (G2)
09-12UT 3.00 2.67 4.67 (G1)
12-15UT 3.00 2.33 4.00
15-18UT 4.33 2.00 3.00
18-21UT 5.00 (G1) 2.33 3.00
21-00UT 3.33 4.67 (G1) 4.33
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely for Jan 01-02 and G2
(Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely for Jan 03 due to the
anticipated impact of CMEs that left the Sun between 28-31 Dec.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 01-Jan 03 2026
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03
S1 or greater 40% 20% 10%
Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms on
Jan 01 due to a impulsive flare on 31 Dec, and a slight chance for S1
(Minor) solar radiation storms on 02-03 Jan.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 31 2025 1351 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 01-Jan 03 2026
Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03
R1-R2 55% 55% 55%
R3 or greater 20% 20% 20%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor to Moderate) or radio blackouts are likely on
01-03 Jan.