289
FXXX10 KWNP 071231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Nov 07 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 07-Nov 09 2025 is 7.00 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 07-Nov 09 2025

             Nov 07       Nov 08       Nov 09
00-03UT       5.00 (G1)    4.67 (G1)    3.67
03-06UT       5.33 (G1)    4.67 (G1)    3.67
06-09UT       5.00 (G1)    4.00         3.00
09-12UT       4.33         3.67         3.00
12-15UT       6.00 (G2)    3.33         3.00
15-18UT       4.67 (G1)    4.00         3.00
18-21UT       4.00         5.67 (G2)    3.33
21-00UT       7.00 (G3)    4.33         3.33

Rationale: G3 (Strong) storming levels remain possible on 07 Nov as
influence from the likely arrival of the 05 Nov full halo CME combine
with the CH HSS. G2 conditions are likely with the arrival of the second
CME late on 08 Nov.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 07-Nov 09 2025

              Nov 07  Nov 08  Nov 09
S1 or greater   20%     20%     20%

Rationale: Due to the complexity and history of Region 4274, there
remains a slight chance of an S1 (Minor) radiation storm.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 07 2025 0716 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 07-Nov 09 2025

              Nov 07        Nov 08        Nov 09
R1-R2           80%           80%           80%
R3 or greater   30%           35%           35%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to remain at R1/R2
(Minor-Moderate) levels, with a chance for isolated R3 (Strong) events,
on 07-09 Nov as the regions in the eastern hemisphere remain active and
magnetically complex.