100
FXXX10 KWNP 040031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Nov 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 04-Nov 06 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 04-Nov 06 2025

             Nov 04       Nov 05       Nov 06
00-03UT       2.67         1.67         2.33
03-06UT       2.67         1.33         3.00
06-09UT       2.33         1.33         3.00
09-12UT       2.33         1.33         3.00
12-15UT       2.33         1.33         3.00
15-18UT       2.33         1.33         3.33
18-21UT       2.00         1.67         3.33
21-00UT       2.33         1.67         4.67 (G1)

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 06 Nov due to
CME/HSS arrival.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 04-Nov 06 2025

              Nov 04  Nov 05  Nov 06
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 03 2025 1011 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 04-Nov 06 2025

              Nov 04        Nov 05        Nov 06
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for an isolated (R3-Strong) event through 06 Nov.