127
FXXX10 KWNP 071231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 May 07 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 07-May 09 2026 is 4.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 07-May 09 2026

             May 07       May 08       May 09
00-03UT       0.67         3.67         2.67
03-06UT       2.00         4.00         2.33
06-09UT       2.33         3.33         2.33
09-12UT       2.33         3.00         2.33
12-15UT       2.67         2.33         2.33
15-18UT       3.00         2.67         2.00
18-21UT       3.67         3.33         2.33
21-00UT       4.33         3.67         2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 07-May 09 2026

              May 07  May 08  May 09
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 07-May 09 2026

              May 07        May 08        May 09
R1-R2           15%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    1%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)
radio blackouts on 07 May. Probabilities increase beginning 08 May as up
to two active regions near L=330 rotate into view from beyond the
eastern limb. Considering the size of these regions and recent far-side
eruptions seen in coronagraph imagery, solar activity is expected to
increase 08-09 May with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts, and a slight chance for R3 (Strong or greater) events.