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FXXX10 KWNP 230031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jul 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 23-Jul 25 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 23-Jul 25 2026

             Jul 23       Jul 24       Jul 25
00-03UT       4.00         3.67         2.67
03-06UT       3.67         4.67 (G1)    2.33
06-09UT       2.67         4.33         2.00
09-12UT       3.00         4.00         1.33
12-15UT       2.00         2.33         1.33
15-18UT       2.00         2.33         1.67
18-21UT       3.00         3.00         2.00
21-00UT       3.33         2.67         2.33

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely for 24 Jul due to
likely CME influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 23-Jul 25 2026

              Jul 23  Jul 24  Jul 25
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 22 2026 0634 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 23-Jul 25 2026

              Jul 23        Jul 24        Jul 25
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with further M-class
flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) likely on 23-25 Jul primarily due to the
flare potential of AR 4493.