Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
856
FXXX10 KWNP 071411
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Oct 07 1410 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 07-Oct 09 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 07-Oct 09 2025
Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct 09
00-03UT 2.67 4.67 (G1) 3.00
03-06UT 2.33 4.33 2.67
06-09UT 3.00 3.67 2.00
09-12UT 3.00 3.00 1.67
12-15UT 3.67 2.00 1.33
15-18UT 3.37 2.00 1.33
18-21UT 4.00 2.67 1.67
21-00UT 5.00 (G1) 3.00 1.67
Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are likely on
07-08 Oct due to the anticipated arrival of two slow-moving CMEs that
left the Sun on 03 Oct.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 07-Oct 09 2025
Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct 09
S1 or greater 10% 10% 5%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms over 07-08 Oct.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 07-Oct 09 2025
Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct 09
R1-R2 40% 40% 35%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 5%
Rationale: A moderate chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
due to M-class flare activity, with a slight chance for an isolated R3
(Strong) event, will persist through 08 Oct. Probabilities undergo a
minor decrease on 09 Oct as Region 4236 exits the western limb.