646
FXXX10 KWNP 121231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Jul 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 12-Jul 14 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 12-Jul 14 2025

             Jul 12       Jul 13       Jul 14
00-03UT       2.67         2.67         1.67
03-06UT       2.67         3.67         2.67
06-09UT       3.00         4.67 (G1)    3.00
09-12UT       3.00         1.67         2.67
12-15UT       2.33         2.67         2.00
15-18UT       2.00         2.00         1.67
18-21UT       2.00         1.67         2.33
21-00UT       2.67         2.67         2.67

Rationale: Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming are possible on 12
Jul, with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 13 Jul due to persistent
positive polarity CH HSS influence.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 12-Jul 14 2025

              Jul 12  Jul 13  Jul 14
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 12 2025 0834 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 12-Jul 14 2025

              Jul 12        Jul 13        Jul 14
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 12-14 Jul.