574
FXXX10 KWNP 191241
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Sep 19 1240 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4.67
(G1-Minor).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 19-Sep 21 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 19-Sep 21 2024

             Sep 19       Sep 20       Sep 21
00-03UT       4.67 (G1)    1.33         1.67
03-06UT       2.67         1.33         2.00
06-09UT       2.00         1.67         2.33
09-12UT       3.33         1.67         3.00
12-15UT       4.00         1.33         3.00
15-18UT       3.33         1.67         2.33
18-21UT       2.67         1.33         2.33
21-00UT       2.00         1.33         2.33

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are possible on 19 Sep
following periods of sustained southward Bz in the solar wind.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 19-Sep 21 2024

              Sep 19  Sep 20  Sep 21
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for the 10 MeV proton flux to reach
the S1 (Minor) levels on 19-21 Sep.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 19-Sep 21 2024

              Sep 19        Sep 20        Sep 21
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-moderate) radio blackouts,
with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) activity over 19-21 Sep.