381
FXXX10 KWNP 091231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Nov 09 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 09-Nov 11 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 09-Nov 11 2025

             Nov 09       Nov 10       Nov 11
00-03UT       2.00         3.00         3.33
03-06UT       1.67         4.67 (G1)    3.67
06-09UT       2.33         5.67 (G2)    3.33
09-12UT       1.67         4.67 (G1)    3.33
12-15UT       2.00         4.33         3.00
15-18UT       2.00         3.67         2.00
18-21UT       3.00         2.67         2.00
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    2.67         3.00

Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 09 Nov in
response to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of G1-G2
(Minor-Moderate) storming are likely on 10 Nov due to continued negative
polarity CH HSS influences and the anticipated arrival of a CME that
left the Sun on 07 Nov.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 09-Nov 11 2025

              Nov 09  Nov 10  Nov 11
S1 or greater   20%     20%     20%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 09-11 Nov.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 09 2025 0735 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 09-Nov 11 2025

              Nov 09        Nov 10        Nov 11
R1-R2           70%           70%           70%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: R1/R2 (Minor/Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event on 09-11 Nov.