523
FNUS72 KTBW 200716
FWSTBW

Spot Forecast for AR-31A Rx Burn...Florida DEP
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
316 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on August 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (813) 645-2323 if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Some drier air along with northwesterly flow will limit the overall
shower and thunderstorm activity today. Relative humidity values will
remain well above critical thresholds and winds should remain less
than 15 mph. For the remainder of the week through the weekend a west
to southwest flow sets up with moisture return along with higher
shower and thunderstorm chances. There are no significant fire
weather concerns at this time. No significant fog is expected.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Scattered showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
                    Isolated showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 95.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......5400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 10 mph.
Dispersion index....28 increasing to 60.
LVORI...............2.

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........26     31     37     36
Weather cov.....              SCTTRD SCTTRD
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........              SCTTRD SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10     30     30
Temp............84     89     92     92
RH..............78     65     57     55
20 ft wind......N 7    N 8    NW 9   NW 10
20 ft wind gust.12     13     14     15
Mix hgt (ft)....2700   4000   5100   5300
Transport wind..N 9    NW 9   NW 10  NW 10
Dispersion idx..28     49     60     63
LVORI...........3      1      1      1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 76.
Max humidity........94 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 9 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 3 to 9 mph.
Dispersion index....40 decreasing to 2.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........35     33     22     17     16     18
Weather cov.....ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).20     10     10     0      10     10
Temp............89     84     81     79     78     77
RH..............60     72     79     83     88     92
20 ft wind......NW 9   W 6    W 5    W 3    SW 2   SW 2
20 ft wind gust.14     10     8      7      7      6
Mix hgt (ft)....3800   600    500    400    400    400
Transport wind..NW 9   W 8    W 7    NW 5   W 3    W 5
Dispersion idx..40     3      0      2      2      1
LVORI...........1      3      4      5      6      7

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Scattered showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 12 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 3 to 12 mph increasing to 13 to 14 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....2 increasing to 15 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 29 late in the morning increasing
                    to 44 late in the morning increasing to 57
                    increasing to 68 late in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 52.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........21     26     32     37     38     38
Weather cov.....       SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).10     30     30     40     40     40
Temp............76     78     86     90     92     92
RH..............94     94     74     64     60     58
20 ft wind......SW 2   SW 3   W 6    W 8    W 10   W 12
20 ft wind gust.6      7      9      12     14     16
Mix hgt (ft)....400    300    3100   4400   5000   4700
Transport wind..W 3    W 5    W 8    W 10   W 13   W 14
Dispersion idx..0      4      29     57     72     63
LVORI...........8      6      3      1      1      1

$$
Forecaster...Wynn
Requested by...Jon Meyer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2520249.0/TBW
.DELDT 08/20/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jonathan.c.meyer@floridadep.gov