082
FNUS72 KTBW 261154
FWSTBW

Spot Forecast for DPC2025W4a...SWFWMD
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
754 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on June 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (813) 645-2323 if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure well out in the Atlantic Ocean will continue a low
level east to southeast flow with the sea breeze developing near
the coast during the afternoon. At the same time an upper level
disturbance will linger over the Florida peninsula today enhancing
the shower and thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening
with gusty erratic winds in the vicinity of any convection.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent) becoming mostly
                    cloudy (65-75 percent). Numerous showers and
                    scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 6 mph shifting to the south
                    early in the afternoon, then shifting to the
                    southwest around 7 mph late in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 7 mph shifting to the southwest 7 to
                    8 mph late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....26 increasing to 39 early in the afternoon,
                    then decreasing to 22 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............2.

TIME (EDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........30     40     55     70
Weather cov.....       ISOLTD SCTTRD NUMRUS
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).10     20     50     70
Temp............85     89     90     86
RH..............69     60     58     67
20 ft wind......E 6    E 6    S 6    S 7
20 ft wind gust.9      8      9      10
Mix hgt (ft)....3200   4400   4300   2100
Transport wind..E 7    E 6    E 7    SW 8
Dispersion idx..26     38     37     22
LVORI...........3      2      2      3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Numerous showers
                    and scattered thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........95 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the north
                    around 5 mph early in the evening, then
                    becoming light in the late evening and
                    overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 9 mph decreasing to 3 to 5 mph
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Dispersion index....11 decreasing to 2 early in the evening.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........70     50     35     35     35     30
Weather cov.....NUMRUS SCTTRD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).70     50     20     10     10     10
Temp............85     80     77     76     75     75
RH..............70     82     85     88     91     90
20 ft wind......SW 7   N 5    E 3    SE 3   E 3    E 3
20 ft wind gust.10     8      6      6      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....1700   800    500    400    400    400
Transport wind..S 7    E 5    E 5    SE 3   SE 3   E 3
Dispersion idx..14     2      2      2      2      1
LVORI...........3      5      6      6      7      7

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph
                    late in the morning, then shifting to the
                    southwest 6 to 8 mph late in the morning. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 3 to 5 mph shifting to the southwest
                    late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....3 increasing to 21 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 43 early in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 30 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........25     40     45     50     50     50
Weather cov.....       SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).10     30     40     40     50     50
Temp............74     76     83     87     88     88
RH..............93     93     77     68     65     66
20 ft wind......E 3    E 4    SE 5   S 7    SW 8   SW 8
20 ft wind gust.6      8      9      9      10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....400    400    2600   3900   4600   3600
Transport wind..E 3    E 3    S 5    S 7    SW 8   SW 8
Dispersion idx..1      3      17     33     43     37
LVORI...........7      6      3      3      1      3

$$
Forecaster...Close
Requested by...LRB
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2516717.0/TBW
.DELDT 06/26/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL danny.harris@swfwmd.state.fl.us