056
FNUS72 KTBW 261147
FWSTBW

Spot Forecast for HC BWC-9...HC ELM
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
747 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on September 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (813) 645-2323 if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and isolated storms
expected today. Winds will remain out of the southwest around
5-10 mph. RH values remain above critical levels. No other fire
weather issues expected.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Scattered showers
                    and isolated thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 9 mph.
Dispersion index....6 increasing to 18 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 29 early in the afternoon
                    increasing to 44 late in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 36.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      4 AM   6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON
Sky (%).........21     14     19     27     35
Weather cov.....                     SCTTRD SCTTRD
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                     ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10     10     30     30
Temp............74     82     87     90     89
RH..............97     86     72     62     64
20 ft wind......S 1    SW 2   SW 3   SW 6   W 6
20 ft wind gust.2      5      8      10     12
Mix hgt (ft)....300    2100   3500   4800   4700
Transport wind..S 2    SW 5   SW 6   SW 8   SW 8
Dispersion idx..2      10     29     48     44
LVORI...........9      4      3      1      1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the evening.
                    Isolated showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    evening, then isolated showers and
                    thunderstorms after 3 am.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 73.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the evening, then gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    after 3 am.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 3 to 9 mph shifting to the east 2 to 3 mph
                    after 3 am, then shifting to the south around 3
                    mph early in the morning.
Dispersion index....25 decreasing to 2.
LVORI...............6.

TIME (EDT)      2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT
Sky (%).........37     38     29     27     34     29
Weather cov.....ISOLTD ISOLTD        ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........ISOLTD ISOLTD        ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).20     20     10     20     10     10
Temp............86     80     78     76     74     74
RH..............71     83     88     91     96     96
20 ft wind......W 6    W 5    SW 2   S 2    SE 1   SE 1
20 ft wind gust.10     8      3      3      2      2
Mix hgt (ft)....2500   500    400    400    400    400
Transport wind..W 9    W 8    W 6    W 5    W 3    SE 3
Dispersion idx..25     3      1      2      2      1
LVORI...........3      5      6      6      8      8

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Scattered showers
                    in the morning. Isolated thunderstorms through
                    the day. Numerous showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 6 mph in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 3 mph shifting to the east early
                    in the morning, then shifting to the southwest
                    2 to 6 mph early in the morning shifting to the
                    west around 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....5 increasing to 18 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 31 in the afternoon decreasing to
                    24 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............6.

TIME (EDT)      2 AM   4 AM   6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON
Sky (%).........30     30     40     50     51     43
Weather cov.....ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD NUMRUS NUMRUS
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).20     40     40     40     60     60
Temp............74     74     80     85     87     87
RH..............96     96     89     77     71     71
20 ft wind......S 1    S 2    SW 2   SW 5   W 6    W 6
20 ft wind gust.2             6      8      10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....400    400    2000   3600   4900   3600
Transport wind..S 3    S 2    S 5    SW 6   SW 6   W 6
Dispersion idx..1      3      14     27     35     29
LVORI...........9      8      4      3      3      3

$$
Forecaster...Carlisle
Requested by...HC ELM
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2522570.0/TBW
.DELDT 09/26/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL raymonds@hcfl.gov