127
FNUS72 KTBW 021117
FWSTBW

Spot Forecast for ST2025S15...SWFWMD
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
717 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on October 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (813) 645-2323 if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure building in from the north will bring breezy northeast
and east winds through the rest of the week. Abundant moisture will
fuel scattered to numerous showers and storms each day and keep
humidity elevated. No significant fog is expected.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the morning, then
                    numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 9 to 17 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 13 to 20 mph.
Dispersion index....10 increasing to 25 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 43 late in the morning increasing
                    to 54 late in the morning decreasing to 47.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EDT)      4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM
Sky (%).........19  13  16  21  31  39  47  49  44  41
Weather cov.....            ISO ISO SCT NUM SCT SCT SCT
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  20  20  40  60  50  40  30
Temp............72  76  80  82  84  85  85  86  84  84
RH..............93  89  78  74  70  68  69  65  69  67
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   NE
20 FT wind spd..9   10  13  14  14  14  14  16  17  16
20 FT wind gust.14  17  18  20  21  21  22  24  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.5 2.3 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.0 3.1 3.0
Transp wind dir.NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.13  16  17  17  17  17  18  20  20  18
Dispersion idx..10  25  43  56  58  54  49  49  48  45
LVORI...........6   4   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 71.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 8 to 16 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 13 to 17 mph.
Dispersion index....35 decreasing to 12.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM
Sky (%).........36  30  29  26  22  19  14  10  15  22  27  26
Weather cov.....ISO ISO
Weather type....RW  RW
Tstm cov........ISO ISO
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............83  81  78  77  76  75  74  73  73  72  72  71
RH..............68  72  76  77  78  80  82  84  86  87  89  90
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..16  15  14  14  13  12  10  9   8   8   9   9
20 FT wind gust.25  24  22  22  22  20  20  16  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.17  16  15  15  14  15  14  14  13  13  14  13
Dispersion idx..35  24  14  10  10  10  9   9   9   9   9   9
LVORI...........3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Scattered showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 9 to 17 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 12 to 18 mph.
Dispersion index....8 increasing to 25 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 44 late in the morning increasing
                    to 57 late in the morning decreasing to 49.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EDT)      2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM
Sky (%).........19  16  14  14  22  30  34  39  44  45  47  49
Weather cov.....                                SCT SCT SCT SCT
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                SCT SCT SCT SCT
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  50  50  50  50
Temp............71  71  71  75  79  83  86  87  87  87  86  85
RH..............90  89  93  88  78  68  64  62  62  62  64  66
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..9   10  10  12  13  14  14  14  14  15  16  17
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  18  20  20  21  22  22  24  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.8 2.0 2.9 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.9
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.12  14  13  15  17  18  18  17  16  17  17  17
Dispersion idx..7   6   10  25  44  58  59  54  49  49  50  48
LVORI...........5   6   6   5   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   2

$$
Forecaster...Wynn
Requested by...ANNE BLANCHARD
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2522881.0/TBW
.DELDT 10/02/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ANNE.BLANCHARD@WATERMATTERS.ORG