700
FNUS72 KTBW 211200
FWSTBW

Spot Forecast for Circle B Bar Reserve...Polk Co. Parks & Natural Resources
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on August 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (813) 645-2323 if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Hot and humid weather will continue with scattered mainly
afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. Relative
humidity values will remain above critical levels with southwest
winds increasing to 5 to 10 mph by this afternoon.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
                    Scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 5 mph shifting to the southwest 5 to
                    8 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Dispersion index....3 increasing to 42.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........50     50     50     60     60
Weather cov.....              ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........              ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10     20     30     30
Temp............77     85     90     92     91
RH..............93     77     65     58     59
20 ft wind......N 0    S 1    SW 2   SW 5   SW 6
20 ft wind gust.2      3      7      10     12
Mix hgt (ft)....300    1800   3300   3900   4100
Transport wind..S 3    W 5    SW 5   SW 7   W 7
Dispersion idx..3      11     22     34     42
LVORI...........6      4      2      1      1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 75.
Max humidity........95 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 9 mph shifting to the south 5 to
                    6 mph after 3 am.
Dispersion index....29 decreasing to 2.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........50     40     40     40     25     15
Weather cov.....ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).20     20     0      0      0      0
Temp............90     84     80     79     77     76
RH..............61     74     82     86     90     92
20 ft wind......W 6    W 5    SW 2   S 2    S 2    S 2
20 ft wind gust.10     8      5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....3300   500    500    400    400    400
Transport wind..W 8    W 8    SW 6   SW 5   SW 5   S 5
Dispersion idx..29     3      1      2      2      2
LVORI...........2      3      6      5      6      7

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent) then partly cloudy (40-50
                    percent) with isolated showers and  thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 6 to 10 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 10 mph.
Dispersion index....4 increasing to 58.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........10     15     20     25     40     40
Weather cov.....                            ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      10     20     20
Temp............76     77     85     90     92     91
RH..............94     94     76     62     55     56
20 ft wind......S 3    S 3    S 6    SW 8   SW 10  SW 10
20 ft wind gust.6      6      9      14     16     16
Mix hgt (ft)....400    500    2900   4000   4600   5700
Transport wind..S 6    SW 6   SW 9   SW 10  SW 10  SW 10
Dispersion idx..1      6      34     54     56     60
LVORI...........7      6      3      1      1      1

$$
Forecaster...Close
Requested by...Chad Allison
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2620164.0/TBW
.DELDT 08/21/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL chadallison@polkfl.gov